OPINIÓN DE LA MESA Divisas 28 de enero de 2022 Comentario de la mesa

Roberto Galván Caballero
rgalvan@intercam.com.mx
─Instagram: robertip_fx_usdmxn
José Curiel
lcuriele@intercam.com.mx
─Versión inglés
Jonatan Tawil
jtawil@intercam.com.mx
Tipo de Cambio Peso/Dólar
Dólar americano
20.8299
Fix Banxico* 20.7383
Promedio móvil 50 días 20.8155
Promedio móvil 200 días 20.3087
Máximo 30 días 20.9557
Mínimo 30 días 20.2787
Datos actualizados a las: 7:27 AM
* Correspondiente al día hábil inmediato anterior a
la fecha de esta publicación.
Fuente: Banxico y Bloomberg.
Buenos días, el precio alcanza durante la operación overnight el 20.8550 en la
parte alta y tuvo un nivel mínimo de 20.72; los principales indicadores tanto de
volatilidad como de riesgo y sobre todo la canasta de divisas frente al dólar siguen
presionados aunque hoy, en menor medida que las recientes cuatro jornadas. Las
Bolsas de Valores han tenido el peor inicio de año en más de 40 años destacando
al S&P que llegó a tener una caída de más de 11.5%; el bono de 10 años
norteamericano se ubica al momento en 1.8150%.
Hoy se publicaron ya datos de Ingreso y Gasto personal con resultados en línea
con las estimaciones. Para el resto de la jornada, estaremos atentos al dato de
Confianza de la Universidad de Michigan cuyo nivel se ubica sobre 68.8 puntos
siendo esto lo más relevante para el resto de la jornada.
Esperamos que ante el gran movimiento alcista de esta semana cuya
depreciación alcanzó el 2.0%, tengamos algo de toma de utilidades de posiciones
largas.
Técnicamente veo soporte sobre 20.72 con extensión hasta 20.68 en la toma de
utilidades; con resistencia sobre 20.82 y extensión a 20.85 con menor
probabilidad.
Rangos iniciales estimados 20.70/20.82.
--------------------------
Good morning.
Friday at last, after a rollercoaster week, boosted by GDP data in some countries,
and mainly by Fed monetary policy. Markets are still trying to digest that the Fed
may hike as soon as in March and probably 5 times in the year. But we will have
to wait for each meeting to find out if they really do it. It will be interesting.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine keep going, so don’t step aside from that.
Asia-Pacific stock markets closed mixed this Friday, Australian S&P led gains in
the region, jumping 2.19%, followed by Japanese Nikkei which ended up 2.09%;
on the other hand, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined -1.08% while the Shanghai
Composite slid -0.97%.
Taiwan markets will be closed for a holiday.
European markets are negative by mid-day, with German DAX -2.07% and
Spaniard IBEX -1.62%.
France’s economy grew by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021, while the yearly
growth was 7%, fastest annual growth in 52 years, following an 8% contraction in
2020.
Spanish GDP grew by 2% in the last quarter of 2021, bringing annual growth to
5%, fastest annual growth since 2000.
The German economy contracted more than expected in the fourth quarter of 2021,
shrinking -0.7%, with an annual growth of 2.8% in 2021.
Wall Street is expecting a mixed opening, which means that they are on their way
to a negative week and a negative month.
Dow is -25 pints while Nasdaq is up 50 points.
At 9:00 local time we’ll have Michigan Consumer Sentiment and will be all for the
week.
Oil is $88.19 USD per barrel, Gold is $1,783.10 USD per ounce, the British Pound
is 1.3420, the Euro is 1.1155 still at the lowest levels since early 2020, and the
Peso is 20.79.
Have a great weekend and don’t forget to watch Rafa Nadal at the Australian Open,
where he could win his 21st grand slam, becoming the most winner of all.